Lecturas varias sobre la economía China y su coyuntura


Ahí van unos cuantos artículos sobre la coyuntura y perspectivas de la economía china. Parece que el tema genera cierto interés…

—China: Risks and Opportunities – The Daily Reckoning. Ya lo comenté aquí.

Inflation in China Poses Big Threat to Global Trade – New York Times (17 Abril). Ofrece una panorámica completa sobre los distintos temas encima de la gran mesa china.

High inflation endangers China’s status as the low-cost workshop for the world. And if the government’s efforts to fight inflation cause the economy to stumble, that will cloud the outlook for international businesses — whether multinationals like General Electric or copper miners in Chile — that have been counting on China for growth.

Inside China, inflation also poses a threat to social stability. “China’s inflation is a big concern, and actual numbers are worse than officially reported,” said Carmen M. Reinhart

The government has also increased agricultural subsidies to curb food prices, and tried to forbid some Chinese companies from raising consumer prices.

Analysts say too much of the country’s growth continues to be tied to inflationary spending on real estate development and government investment in roads, railways and other multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects.

Temor de que la elevada inflación y los aumentos salariales recientes deterioren la competitividad de las exportaciones chinas y los clientes occidentales quieran comprar a precios más baratos de lo que los exportadores exigen, o se busquen otros mercados. ¿El turno de África?

Strong Growth, High Inflation: When Will China’s Tightening Measures Bite? – Roubini Global Economics (15 Abril)

Se recopilan numerosas opiniones de distintos analistas y organismos. En general son bastante optimistas, los menos predicen cierta desaceleración, pero nadie prevé una caída brusca.

Great Speculations: Why China Is So Bubble-Friendly – Adam Wolfe de Roubini Global Economics

China parece ser fuente de varias burbujas y especulaciones masivas. Las últimas tienen que ver con la sal y el cobre.

Is loan growth in China slowing? – Michael Pettis

El precio de la vivienda en Pekín baja un 11% y las ventas un 51% en marzo – Toni Mascaró en Libre Mercado

China redobla las medidas para frenar la inflación – Toni Mascaró en Libre Mercado

China’s Unbalanced, Uncoordinated and Unsustainable Growth Model – Nouriel Roubini

Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible—most likely after 2013—China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Continuing down the investment-led growth path will exacerbate the visible glut of capacity in manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure. I think this dichotomy between the high-growth/inflation pressures of the next couple of years and growth hitting a brick wall in the second half of the quinquennium is far more important than the current focus on a “soft landing” amid double-digit growth. A number of local scholars close to policy circles agree that this is the biggest challenge of the next few years, as we’ve been saying for months.

No country can be productive enough to take 50% of GDP and reinvest it into new capital stock without eventually facing massive overcapacity and a staggering nonperforming loan problem. Most likely after 2013, China will suffer a hard landing. China needs to save less, reduce fixed investment, cut net exports as a share of GDP and boost consumption as a share of GDP.

China is rife with overinvestment in physical capital, infrastructure and property. To a visitor, this is evident in brand-new empty airports and bullet trains (which will reduce the need for the 45 planned airports), highways to nowhere, massive new government buildings, ghost towns and brand new aluminum smelters kept closed to prevent global prices from plunging.

Several Chinese policies have led to a massive transfer of income from politically weak households to the politically powerful corporates [Para que luego se diga que en China no hay problemas de rent-seeking...]

Los obstáculos que afrontan los mandarines monetarios de China – Wall Street Journal

Muy interesante relato de cuáles son las restricciones sobre las que operan los mandatorios del banco central chino. Están sometidos totalmente a la voluntad del Partido.

What if China’s economic expansion is about to slow? – Washington Post

Argumenta que el gran crecimiento de las últimas décadas de China va a dar paso a un crecimiento mucho más lento y moderado, no por factores coyunturales relacionados con la burbuja y el crédito, sino por factores estructurales.

Véase también mi recopilación de artículos previa.