Los especuladores no causaron la burbuja del petróleo, según la OCDE
To many, that oil went from $65 a barrel in June 2007 to $145 in July 2008, and back down to $31 in December of the same year, is proof the price was not being set by supply and demand. Academics who have proclaimed on the issue come down on both sides of the argument. A recent report from the OECD analyses the literature, applies its own statistical tests and finds investors not guilty.
commodities without futures markets (apples, edible beans) or futures markets where index funds did not get involved (milk, rice) also saw price rises during 2006-08. Nor was there any correlation between the size of index funds in particular commodities and the price rise for those raw materials.
After analysing data on both prices and individual holdings from America’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the OECD study found that there was “no convincing evidence that positions held by index traders…impact market returns”; indeed, the OECD reckons that larger positions led to lower market volatility.
Véase este post donde mencionaba el asunto. Lo de que no fueron los especuladores los responsables de la burbuja del petróleo ya fue adelantado por el Observatorio de Coyuntura del IJM. Léase su nota de prensa: La banca central, y no la especulación, provocó la burbuja del petróleo durante el verano de 2008.